Debt and Deficit Projections

LINK TO UPDATED 2018 SENATE-HOUSE CALENDAR

Oct. 15, 2018: October 15, 2018: Joint Treasury-OMB Statement calculates final FY 2018 budget deficit as $779 billion, $113 billion more than the prior year. (FY 2018 ended on September 30.)

June 2018: CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook | At-a-Glance

Excerpt: Why Are Projected Deficits Rising?

…over the next 30 years, spending as a share of GDP would increase for Social Security, the major health care programs (primarily Medicare), and interest on the government’s debt. In CBO’s projections, most of the spending growth for Social Security and Medicare results from the aging of the population: As members of the baby-boom generation (people born between 1946 and 1964) age and as life expectancy continues to rise, the percentage of the population age 65 or older will grow sharply, boosting the number of beneficiaries of those programs. Growth in spending on Medicare and the other major health care programs is also driven by rising health care costs per person. In addition, the federal government’s net interest costs are projected to climb sharply as a percentage of GDP as interest rates rise from their currently low levels and as debt accumulates. (emphasis added)

April 2018: CBO – The Budget and Economic Outlook – 2018 to 2028

Realistic-alternative-CBO-baseline-April-2018

Aging of the population and rising health care costs fueling deficit

Effects of the 2017 Tax Act on Economic and Budget Projections

Deficit impact of Tax Expenditures

Impact of Automatic Stabilizers Triggered by a Recession

Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output from January 2011 Through March 2011

Impact-of-the-2007-2009-Recession

Interest-payments-doubling-as-a-percent-of-GDP-2018-2028