Debt and Deficit Projections

June 2018:  CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook | At-a-Glance

  • Excerpt:  Why Are Projected Deficits Rising?

    …over the next 30 years, spending as a share of GDP would increase for Social Security, the major health care programs (primarily Medicare), and interest on the government’s debt. In CBO’s projections, most of the spending growth for Social Security and Medicare results from the aging of the population: As members of the baby-boom generation (people born between 1946 and 1964) age and as life expectancy continues to rise, the percentage of the population age 65 or older will grow sharply, boosting the number of beneficiaries of those programs. Growth in spending on Medicare and the other major health care programs is also driven by rising health care costs per person. In addition, the federal government’s net interest costs are projected to climb sharply as a percentage of GDP as interest rates rise from their currently low levels and as debt accumulates.  (emphasis added)

April 2018:  CBO – The Budget and Economic Outlook – 2018 to 2028

Realistic-alternative-CBO-baseline-April-2018

Aging of the population and rising health care costs fueling deficit 

Effects of the 2017 Tax Act on Economic and Budget Projections  

Deficit impact of Tax Expenditures 

Impact of Automatic Stabilizers Triggered by a Recession  

Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output from January 2011 Through March 2011 

Impact-of-the-2007-2009-Recession

Interest-payments-doubling-as-a-percent-of-GDP-2018-2028

Debt Stabilization Plans and Options:


Source:  CBO, April 2018